Planning to Be Lucky is Not Good Planning

Custer Search and Rescue was called out in the middle of a snow storm to a remote cabin. The power was out, and a resident on oxygen was in a medical crisis. We moved through the blinding snow in the middle of the night, connected a generator, stabilized the patient, and went home. Mission accomplished.

It wasn't until we returned the next day in the clear light of morning that we saw it: our footsteps from the night before led right over a downed power line.

In the heat of the moment, we felt successful. In the daylight, we realized we were just lucky. We had made the decision to walk blindly into a hazard that could have killed us, yet we were "rewarded" with a successful rescue. That realization is where the real work begins.

The Problem with the Reward

Most of the time, we go out, have fun, and come home. Sometimes things don’t go as planned, but we have the resources to overcome the hiccups, so we don't think about it too much.

The danger lies in the "Bad Feedback Loop." This happens when you are rewarded for making mistakes simply because there were no immediate consequences. You don't know the avalanche forecast, so you ski a new, untouched line. It’s the best skiing of your life. You feel like a pro, but in reality, you were at extreme risk. You shouldn't have been rewarded—you could have died.

When we adventure, we have to look past the high-fives and ask: At what point were we most at risk, and why are we still alive

The Rescuer’s Trap 

We see this from the rescuer’s standpoint, too. We go out into the same terrain and weather that already claimed a victim. We know someone else wasn't lucky, yet we often fall into the trap of complacency, thinking, "We’re just really good at what we do." We assume the victim was unprepared or unskilled, but that’s not always the case.

Rescuers and adventurers alike are often rewarded for placing themselves in high-risk situations. We usually get to come home, but was it due to our planning, our equipment, and our mitigation? Or was it just luck?

Beyond the "Low-Hanging Fruit"

The classic debrief asks: What went right? What can we do better? We celebrate our wins and rub our noses in the obvious mistakes. That’s the low-hanging fruit. Rarely do we look at what didn’t go wrong but had a high potential to. We have to identify the "near-misses" that we didn't even notice in the moment.

Planning to be Lucky is Not a Plan

In the heat of a call or the rush of an adventure, we often just feel our luck, wipe our brow, and move on. We don't want to think about what might have happened. But to grow, we must transition from relying on luck to relying on proper planning.

The goal of a true debrief is to review the things that weren't obvious at the time. We have to be honest enough to admit when the only reason we are home is that we got lucky—and then we have to make sure we never have to rely on that luck again.

Because planning to be lucky is not good planning.